Abstract
Purpose
Decision analysis techniques can compare management strategies when there are insufficient
data from clinical studies to guide decision making. We compared the outcomes of decision
analyses and subsequent clinical studies in the infectious disease literature to assess
the validity of the conclusions of the decision analyses.
Methods
A search strategy to identify decision analyses in infectious disease topics published
from 1990 to 2005 was developed and performed using PubMed. Abstracts of all identified
articles were reviewed, and infectious disease-related decision analyses were retained.
Subsequent clinical trials and observational studies that corresponded to these decision
analyses were identified using prespecified search strategies. Clinical studies were
considered a match for the decision analysis if they assessed the same patient population,
intervention, and outcome. Agreement or disagreement between the conclusions of the
decision analysis and clinical study were determined by author review.
Results
The initial PubMed search yielded 318 references. Forty decision analyses pertaining
to 29 infectious disease topics were identified. Of the 40, 16 (40%) from 13 infectious
disease topics had matching clinical studies. In 12 of 16 (75%), conclusions of at
least 1 clinical study agreed with those of the decision analysis. Three of the 4
decision analyses in which conclusions disagreed were from the same topic (management
of febrile children).
Conclusions
There was substantial agreement between the conclusions of decision analyses and clinical
studies in infectious diseases, supporting the validity of decision analysis and its
utility in guiding management decisions.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
August 8,
2006
Received:
April 4,
2006
Footnotes
This study was supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (NIAID K24AI065298 [T.R.S.]). The funding agency did not participate in the design or conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, or interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the article.
Identification
Copyright
© 2007 Elsevier Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
