The American Journal of Medicine
Volume 123, Issue 9 , Pages 836-846.e2 , September 2010

A Prediction Model for the Risk of Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

  • Kuo-Liong Chien, MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Institute of Epidemiology & Preventive Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
  • ,
  • Hung-Ju Lin, MD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
  • ,
  • Bai-Chin Lee, MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
  • ,
  • Hsiu-Ching Hsu, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
  • ,
  • Yuan-Teh Lee, MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
    • Chinese Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
  • ,
  • Ming-Fong Chen, MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
    • Corresponding Author InformationRequests for reprints should be addressed to Ming-Fong Chen, MD, PhD, Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, 100, Taiwan

References 

  1. Barsoum RS. Chronic kidney disease in the developing world. N Engl J Med. 2006;354:997–999
  2. Manjunath G, Tighiouart H, Coresh J, et al. Level of kidney function as a risk factor for cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. Kidney Int. 2003;63:1121–1129
  3. Imai E, Matsuo S. Chronic kidney disease in Asia. Lancet. 2008;371:2147–2148
  4. Henry RM, Kostense PJ, Bos G, et al. Mild renal insufficiency is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality: The Hoorn Study. Kidney Int. 2002;62:1402–1407
  5. Culleton BF, Larson MG, Wilson PW, et al. Cardiovascular disease and mortality in a community-based cohort with mild renal insufficiency. Kidney Int. 1999;56:2214–2219
  6. Fried LF, Shlipak MG, Crump C, et al. Renal insufficiency as a predictor of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in elderly individuals. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2003;41:1364–1372
  7. Garg AX, Clark WF, Haynes RB, House AA. Moderate renal insufficiency and the risk of cardiovascular mortality: results from the NHANES I. Kidney Int. 2002;61:1486–1494
  8. Go AS, Chertow GM, Fan D, et al. Chronic kidney disease and the risks of death, cardiovascular events, and hospitalization. N Engl J Med. 2004;351:1296–1305
  9. Shlipak MG, Simon JA, Grady D, et al. Renal insufficiency and cardiovascular events in postmenopausal women with coronary heart disease. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2001;38:705–711
  10. So WY, Kong AP, Ma RC, et al. Glomerular filtration rate, cardiorenal end points, and all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetic patients. Diabetes Care. 2006;29:2046–2052
  11. Sarnak MJ, Levey AS, Schoolwerth AC, et al. Kidney disease as a risk factor for development of cardiovascular disease: a statement from the American Heart Association Councils on Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease, High Blood Pressure Research, Clinical Cardiology, and Epidemiology and Prevention. Circulation. 2003;108:2154–2169
  12. K/DOQI clinical practice guidelines for chronic kidney disease: evaluation, classification, and stratification. Am J Kidney Dis. 2002;39:S1–S266
  13. Coresh J, Selvin E, Stevens LA, et al. Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the United States. JAMA. 2007;298:2038–2047
  14. Coresh J, Byrd-Holt D, Astor BC, et al. Chronic kidney disease awareness, prevalence, and trends among U.S. adults, 1999 to 2000. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005;16:180–188
  15. Nickolas TL, Frisch GD, Opotowsky AR, et al. Awareness of kidney disease in the US population: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2000. Am J Kidney Dis. 2004;44:185–197
  16. Wen CP, Cheng TY, Tsai MK, et al. All-cause mortality attributable to chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study based on 462 293 adults in Taiwan. Lancet. 2008;371:2173–2182
  17. Hsu CC, Hwang SJ, Wen CP, et al. High prevalence and low awareness of CKD in Taiwan: a study on the relationship between serum creatinine and awareness from a nationally representative survey. Am J Kidney Dis. 2006;48:727–738
  18. Zhang L, Zuo L, Xu G, et al. Community-based screening for chronic kidney disease among populations older than 40 years in Beijing. Nephrol Dial Transplant. 2007;22:1093–1099
  19. de Jong PE, Gansevoort RT. Screening techniques for detecting chronic kidney disease. Curr Opin Nephrol Hypertens. 2005;14:567–572
  20. Dirks JH, de Zeeuw D, Agarwal SK, et al. Prevention of chronic kidney and vascular disease: toward global health equity—the Bellagio 2004 Declaration. Kidney Int Suppl. 2005;S1–S6
  21. Bang H, Mazumdar M, Kern LM, et al. Validation and comparison of a novel screening guideline for kidney disease: KEEPing SCORED. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168:432–435
  22. Bang H, Vupputuri S, Shoham DA, et al. SCreening for Occult REnal Disease (SCORED): a simple prediction model for chronic kidney disease. Arch Intern Med. 2007;167:374–381
  23. Snyder S, Pendergraph B. Detection and evaluation of chronic kidney disease. Am Fam Physician. 2005;72:1723–1732
  24. Taal MW, Brenner BM. Predicting initiation and progression of chronic kidney disease: Developing renal risk scores. Kidney Int. 2006;70:1694–1705
  25. Kshirsagar AV, Bang H, Bomback AS, et al. A simple algorithm to predict incident kidney disease. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168:2466–2473
  26. Fox CS, Larson MG, Leip EP, et al. Predictors of new-onset kidney disease in a community-based population. JAMA. 2004;291:844–850
  27. McCullough PA, Li S, Jurkovitz CT, et al. CKD and cardiovascular disease in screened high-risk volunteer and general populations: the Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004. Am J Kidney Dis. 2008;51:S38–S45
  28. Whaley-Connell AT, Sowers JR, Stevens LA, et al. CKD in the United States: Kidney Early Evaluation Program (KEEP) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004. Am J Kidney Dis. 2008;51:S13–S20
  29. Chien KL, Lee BC, Hsu HC, et al. Prevalence, agreement and classification of various metabolic syndrome criteria among ethnic Chinese: a report on the hospital-based health diagnosis of the adult population. Atherosclerosis. 2008;196:764–771
  30. Chien K, Cai T, Hsu H, et al. A prediction model for type 2 diabetes risk among Chinese people. Diabetologia. 2009;52:443–450
  31. Lopes-Virella M, Stone P, Ellis S, Colwell JA. Cholesterol determination in high-density lipoproteins separated by three different methods. Clin Chem. 1977;23:882–884
  32. Levey AS, Bosch JP, Lewis JB, et al. A more accurate method to estimate glomerular filtration rate from serum creatinine: a new prediction equation (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study Group). Ann Intern Med. 1999;130:461–470
  33. Ma Y-C, Zuo L, Chen J-H, et al. Chinese eGFR Investigation Collaboration Modified Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimating Equation for Chinese Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2006;17:2937–2944
  34. Matsuo S, Imai E, Horio M, et al. Revised equations for estimated GFR from serum creatinine in Japan. Am J Kidney Dis. 2009;53:982–992
  35. Li H, Zhang X, Xu G, et al. Determination of reference intervals for creatinine and evaluation of creatinine-based estimating equation for Chinese patients with chronic kidney disease. Clinica Chimica Acta. 2009;403:87–91
  36. Lee Y, Lin RS, Sung FC, et al. Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Cohort in Taiwan-baseline data and five-year follow-up morbidity and mortality. J Clin Epidemiol. 2000;53:838–846
  37. Chien KL, Sung FC, Hsu HC, et al. Apolipoprotein A1 & B, and stroke events in a community-based cohort in Taiwan: Report of Chin-Shan Community Cardiovascular Study. Stroke. 2002;33:39–44
  38. Sullivan LM, Massaro JM, D'Agostino RB. Presentation of multivariate data for clinical use: The Framingham Study risk score functions. Stat Med. 2004;23:1631–1660
  39. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. A method of comparing the areas under receive operating characteristic curves derived from the same cases. Radiology. 1983;148:839–843
  40. DeLong ER, DeLong DM, Clarke-Pearson DL. Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach. Biometrics. 1988;44:837–845
  41. Cook NR. Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction. Circulation. 2007;115:928–935
  42. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York, NY: Chapman & Hall/CRC; 1994;
  43. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. The multiple logistic regression model. In: Applied Logistic Regression. 1st ed.. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1989;p. 25–37
  44. McGeechan K, Macaskill P, Irwig L, et al. Assessing new biomarkers and predictive models for use in clinical practice: a clinician's guide. Arch Intern Med. 2008;168:2304–2310
  45. Fleiss JL, Levin B, Paik MC. Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc; 2003;
  46. Pencina MJ, D'Agostino RB, D'Agostino RB, Vasan RS. Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med. 2008;27:157–172discussion 207-212
  47. Yates J. External correspondence: decomposition of the mean probability score. Organ Behav Hum Perform. 1982;30:132–156
  48. Harrell FEJ. Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression and Survival Analysis. New York: Springer; 2001;
  49. Fox CS, Larson MG, Leip EP, et al. Glycemic status and development of kidney disease: the Framingham Heart Study. Diabetes Care. 2005;28:2436–2440
  50. Caramori ML, Fioretto P, Mauer M. Enhancing the predictive value of urinary albumin for diabetic nephropathy. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2006;17:339–352
  51. Hillege HL, Fidler V, Diercks GF, et al. Urinary albumin excretion predicts cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality in general population. Circulation. 2002;106:1777–1782
  52. Jafar TH. Hypertension and kidney disease in Asia. Curr Opin Nephrol Hypertens. 2006;15:291–295
  53. Brancati FL, Whelton PK, Randall BL, et al. Risk of end-stage renal disease in diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study of men screened for MRFIT (Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial). JAMA. 1997;278:2069–2074
  54. The effect of intensive treatment of diabetes on the development and progression of long-term complications in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial Research Group). N Engl J Med. 1993;329:977–986
  55. Effect of intensive therapy on the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (The Diabetes Control and Complications (DCCT) Research Group). Kidney Int. 1995;47:1703–1720
  56. Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33) (UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group). Lancet. 1998;352:837–853
  57. Sustained effect of intensive treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus on development and progression of diabetic nephropathy: the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study. JAMA. 2003;290:2159–2167
  58. Chen J, Muntner P, Hamm LL, et al. The metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease in U.S. adults. Ann Intern Med. 2004;140:167–174
  59. Kurella M, Lo JC, Chertow GM. Metabolic syndrome and the risk for chronic kidney disease among nondiabetic adults. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2005;16:2134–2140
  60. Gelber RP, Kurth T, Kausz AT, et al. Association between body mass index and CKD in apparently healthy men. Am J Kidney Dis. 2005;46:871–880
  61. Muntner P, Coresh J, Smith JC, et al. Plasma lipids and risk of developing renal dysfunction: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study. Kidney Int. 2000;58:293–301
  62. Schaeffner ES, Kurth T, Curhan GC, et al. Cholesterol and the risk of renal dysfunction in apparently healthy men. J Am Soc Nephrol. 2003;14:2084–2091
  63. Chang HY, Tung CW, Lee PH, et al. Hyperuricemia as an independent risk factor of chronic kidney disease in middle-aged and elderly population. Am J Med Sci. 2010;339:509–515
  64. Barnett AH, Bain SC, Bouter P, et al. Angiotensin-receptor blockade versus converting-enzyme inhibition in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. N Engl J Med. 2004;351:1952–1961
  65. Bellomo G, Venanzi S, Verdura C, et al. Association of uric acid with change in kidney function in healthy normotensive individuals. Am J Kidney Dis. 2010 Apr 10;[Epub ahead of print]

 Funding: National Science Council (NSC 97-2314-B-002-130 -MY3, 97-3112-B-002-034).

 Conflict of Interest: None of the authors have any conflicts of interest associated with the work presented in this manuscript.

 Authorship: All authors had access to the data and played a role in writing this manuscript.

PII: S0002-9343(10)00460-2

doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2010.05.010

The American Journal of Medicine
Volume 123, Issue 9 , Pages 836-846.e2 , September 2010